The Future of Work is Cloudy
The future is incredibly difficult to define, so how can organizations prepare for it? Crystal balls are known to have a poor track record. What seemed like science fiction yesterday does not even raise eyebrows today. Artificial intelligence, machine learning, automation, and robots are replacing many jobs that people have been building lives around for centuries.
The dramatic changes in the work environment of today have resulted in both HR and organizational challenges that reflect, and have occasionally triggered, massive political and social disruption. It is essentially the 21st Century version of the “race against the machine” that’s responsible for fueling social change ever since the First Industrial Revolution.
If you read any commentary on the mobilization of human capital to meet the future work needs, two recurrent themes become apparent: on-the-job skills training and investment in education. Still, there are disturbing trends on the horizon.
For instance, time spent in school increased by an astonishing 6 years from 1915 to 2005, accounting for an increase in worker productivity of 14 percent, which affected economic growth directly. Since 1988, however, many advanced economies have experienced a leveling off in educational attainment level, or even a decline in certain instances.
The economic risk to such countries becomes clear once you consider that students who complete higher levels of education are also more likely to possess more human-only or “abstract” skills such as creativity, persuasion, intuition, and problem-solving. Automation is highly unlikely to displace such high-value skills in the foreseeable future.
At the opposite end of the employment scale are low-wage, service-oriented jobs that also perform work that will only be minimally impacted by automation.
In the broad midsection of that scale, however, automation has and will continue replacing both blue-collar and white-collar workers that perform repetitive or clerical tasks. The polarization of the labor market will, as a result, only compound income inequality, which is a current social issue.
During the pandemic, half of workers are anxious about their future, though much of that concern can be directly attributed to automation and technology. While this is hardly surprising, it is still a problematic number since anxiety is known to destroy self-confidence and inhibits the ability and willingness of workers to adapt,
Short-term contracts and self-employment will become more common as more work moves online, which will likely result in more financial instability, less job security, and even more stress. With an out of office workplace and no social environment, there will be less participation in decision-making and less job control. The inevitable anxiety usually causes several psychological and physical health issues.
According to research, 74% of workers are ready to learn new skills and completely retrain to remain employable in the future. However, what such skills represent and where the training is offered remain one of the biggest challenges facing organizations today.
The coming workforce will not be all Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) and application programmers. The way your organization values and aids in the development of human skills such as adaptability, collaboration, and conceptual thinking will become increasingly important.
Artificial intelligence is likely to influence work in astonishing ways, but its effect on a human scale is already becoming apparent. On the positive side, people will be less likely to work in environments that are traditionally hazardous thanks to automation and robotics, leading to a lower risk of illness or injury from work-related events.
The incoming younger generations, however, will work longer and this will result in an aging workforce that may have higher incidences of chronic illnesses. Furthermore, a higher number of people will be working remotely in contract, part-time, or freelance positions, outside the typical employer/employee relationship. This may increase anxiety, loneliness, and stress because of precarious employment. The cost of healthcare and pensions is just one of the issues likely to shape how tomorrow’s workforce evolves.
The stages of automation as defined by a recent study on the future of work by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) are: Assisted Intelligence (ex. GPS and monitoring systems in today’s vehicles), Augmented Intelligence (ex. emerging technologies that enables ride-and car-sharing services), and Autonomous Intelligence (ex. The rapidly approaching future of self-driving vehicles).
Technology and the constantly increasing amount of data that it depends on is likely to shape the future, but to what extent will humanity affect that landscape? The study by PwC provides 4 scenarios, each reflecting how society is likely to either temper or accentuate the rise of technology.
In the first scenario, The Red World, the economy will be defined by technology and its most innovative specialists. The largest results will come from specific, relevant skills and experience, with those workers moving frequently from one contract opportunity to another. Innovation is key, and the smaller, nimbler, and agile entrepreneurial companies out-flank corporate size. “Full-time” workers comprise less than 10 percent of the workforce.
In the second scenario, The Blue World, global corporations are the ones that run the show. A core group of exceptional talent enjoy amazing rewards but rely on the skills and expertise of contract or freelance workers. Being a full-time corporate employee has great compensation and benefits as well as relentless pressure to perform. Implants, medication, and augmented technology help employees push beyond the limits of human performance. Such employees are expected to continually develop and hone their skill set. The disparity in wealth distribution results in a wider gap between the haves and have-nots.
In the third scenario, The Green World, the importance of a strong corporate social conscience rises in importance due to public opinion. Extensive use of technology and automation allows organizations to meet these goals but comes at a cost to job. The green agenda, which is the consequence of increasingly scarce natural resources and demanding international regulations, recognizes that business has a greater impact than just financial considerations.
In the fourth scenario, The Yellow World, both organizations and workers react to public policy that seeks “fairness” in wealth and resource distribution. Workers are most loyal to people in their skill set, as opposed to their employer. There’s a re-emergence of worker associations, like “Guilds” from the Middle Ages that provide protection, training, and benefits for many types of workers. Automation and technology must temper their impact since workers push back against policies favoring the “elite.”
Workers who demonstrate creativity, empathy, and leadership will be rewarded and attracted to organizations displaying similar traits. The most successful organizations in any of the 4 worlds described above are those that prioritize foundational health and well-being, inspiring discretionary effort from contractors or employees and therefore achieving the highest productivity level.
Individual wellbeing platforms on employees are currently facilitating psychological and physical health support. In the future, these data-rich, personalized platforms are likely to expand into other significant stress-related areas, such as interpersonal relationship health and financial health.
The future of work will be shaped by constantly expanding technology as well as immensely powerful social trends, but it is nearly impossible to predict the direction it takes. Individual workers and companies alike need to prepare for several outcomes. However, one is very predictable: organizations that don’t adapt to these new realities will be unable to compete successfully, leaving their people alienated and frustrated.
